Title : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2021
link : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2021
Crystal Ball Gazing for 2021
Happy New Year
May 2020 be a better year than 2021!
3rd Level New Zealand wishes you and your whānau a fantastic year with great flying and great plane spotting opportunities.
So as I sit in my non-airline industry armchair I once again turn my mind to the crystal ball and gaze into what might happen to our domestic airlines in the year ahead...
Air Auckland doesn't seem to be anything more than an air taxi and air charter operator out of Ardmore. With no overseas tourists I don't expect any change in 2021.
Air Chathams faces two immediate challenges, namely the future of the Kapiti Coast airport and the urgent need for a medium term replacement for the Convairs which the airline has already indicated will soon be retired. The expansion of the Chathams airport will not happen overnight hence the need for a medium term Convair replacement. The ATR by all accounts is working well on the Chathams service but the lack of the combi/freighter configuration as in Convair CIB is an issue. At present the airline is still operating reduced schedules from Paraparaumu, Whanganui and Whakatane to Auckland, passenger numbers no doubt influenced by the lack of international flights. The airline has indicated it is looking at two new routes to Auckland. One presumably is Masterton, but at this stage the airport rebuild is some time away. One also wonders when the Norfolk Island route will reopen. So for 2021, I think a maneuvering year responding to what arises.
Air Kaikoura's service to Wellington is a niche operation and I don't expect any expansion. The challenge the operator still faces is promoting Kaikoura as a boutique weekend destination. No change expected for 2021.
Air Napier cut its only dedicated passenger service between Napier and Gisborne during lockdown and now just operates a scheduled courier service on the same route. There are rumours about Air Napier wanting to expand but none of its plans have come to pass. No change for 2021.
Part of the Government package Air New Zealand received was the pledge that no domestic ports would be dropped. This was largely due to the pressure brought by NZ First. In the light of the airline's changed circumstances one wonders now whether the airline will seek to dialogue with the Government on this. Ports under threat would be Timaru, Hokitika, Taupo and Whangarei and maybe some routes such as Wellington-Gisborne.
With the oldest Bombardiers now 15 years old one wonders whether these will disappear and the regional fleet be purely ATR 72s.
Despite the closed borders Air New Zealand is experiencing good demand domestically and this will continue.
Barrier Air has bounced back from Covid and it at almost at its full pre-Covid timetable... it already is to Great Barrier Island and Kaitaia has 11 of its 13 pre-Covid flights. During 2020 Barrier Air has painted its first Caravan in the company's full colours and getting ahead of its maintenance schedule. It looks set to experience a very busy summer but watch out for further development as this innovative operator looks for new opportunities. Last year I suggested that it might look for a larger type or, and if there was to be a new destination, my guess would be Whitianga. The Caravan does limit its options out of Auckland. So maybe this is a time to think beyond the company's current successful formula and look for new niches.
Of all the luck... Fly My Sky changed hands within days of lockdown. The Matamata/Hobbiton service, which hadn't really taken off was cut. Since then Fly My Sky has started North Shore - Great Barrier flights. Fly My Sky has bounced back and seems to have a good summer of it. But at some point it needs to look to the future. The oldest Islander, SFK, is 50... while the Islander is an amazing aircraft one wonders if it is the platform for the future.
Golden Bay Air was the second last operator to resume operations - Jetstar was the last. The Airvan has proved to be a good addition to the fleet. The airline indicated that before lockdown it was interested in a larger twin to replace the Piper Seneca. This could be the only future development... the airline is a niche operator and there are no obvious new routes for 2021.
Jetstar tried regional services and failed. No change forecasted in 2021.
Originair is already talking about 2 more Jetstreams and more inter-regional routes. They also have signalled a much improved timetable on the Hamilton-Palmerston North-Nelson route. I don't think they will take Air New Zealand on in routes out of Nelson. Nelson-Napier, Nelson-Tauranga and Nelson-Hamilton are all possibilities. In 2021 Originar will be an operator to watch.
Sounds Air had a hard year but has survived and expanded into Wanaka. Picton, Taupo and Westport schedules are still less than pre-Covid levels. Nelson has not bounced back yet. So for 2021 I think they will want to look for new possibilities. With the new Wanaka service I wonder if Christchurch could become a new hub for Sounds Air? Certainly links from Christchurch to both Whanganui and Paraparaumu might offer some potential, though with the uncertainty of Kapiti Airport Paraparaumu might not be worth investing in. Another possible route might be Oamaru to Wellington direct morning northbound, evening southbound. So 2021 could well be a year of new expansion.
I presume Stewart Island Flights has bounced back. Stewart Island will continue to growing as a destination. As I said last year, with the runway at Stewart Island and the beach landings the BN Islander is a perfect fit. It is interesting that Queenstown-Stewart Island options are now being offered by Queenstown operators. I can't see a lot of change for 2021.
Over the years Sunair has bounced back repeatedly from its set-backs. It already seems to be busy on its services between Tauranga, Whitianga and the Coromandel. Inter-regional flights from Hamilton and Tauranga to Whangarei and Gisbore were slow to pick up and the fares on these have been greatly increased, a sign that they were only often getting one or two passengers. I suspect this will have the reverse effect and sadly these flights will gradually disappear. Once again, my read for 2021, no new developments likely.
thus Article Crystal Ball Gazing for 2021
that is all articles Crystal Ball Gazing for 2021This time, hopefully can provide benefits to all of you. Okay, see you in another article posting .
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