Title : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020 Revisited
link : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020 Revisited
Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020 Revisited
What a year!
I don't think anyone was expecting 2020 would unfold as it has...
I hope you are safe and well in your bubble
Someone wrote comment on the blog suggesting I write a comment on the future of Air NZ.
I've decided to revisit by crystal ball gazing from New Years Day...
So, this is what I think now, remembering I am just an armchair airline enthusiast...
Air New Zealand has made it clear that in the short term it will tend to be a domestic operator. International services will be very slow to build up as and when covid is controlled in destination countries. On the domestic scene, after the Christchurch earthquakes Air New Zealand slowly built up the services to Christchurch as the demand grew. It will be their task to build up domestic services again but with job losses and a much softer economy it won't be easy. It will never be a better time for kiwis to visit Queenstown so hopefully domestic tourism and family visiting family after lockdown might help kick start Air NZ's domestic services as business traffic builds up. As part of the Government's package they are not to drop any domestic ports. So a long haul for Air New Zealand to get back to where they were so a much smaller airline.
Jetstar have already indicated a restart on 1 June 2020, some weeks after the lockdown ends. Clearly they don't want to be flying in the building up of traffic phase which indicates something of the nature of Jetstar in the New Zealand market. Look for a leaner Jetstar.
I suspect Air Chathams doesn't owe a lot on its fleet which will help keep it in a reasonable position. The frequency of the Chathams' service will depend on the capacity to export fish beyond NZ. The Whakatāne, Whanganui and Kāpiti routes will rebuild slower. Air Chathams' capacity to use smaller aircraft, eg a Metro instead of a Saab, is an advantage. If we become covid free and Norfolk Island remain covid free I imagine the Norfolk Island service will be able to start early and Norfolk Island will be an attractive covid-free destination. Can't see much work for the ATR. This might be the time to pick up further Saabs and ATRs at a lower cost.
Barrier Air was expecting to carry 70,000 passengers this year. It could still happen. Domestic tourism is going to take off in the short term when there is little international travel and certainly Great Barrier Island has a lot to offer. Marketing Great Barrier Island and Kaitaia as winter destinations would be key. Barrier Air has proved itself as a quality operator.
I suspect Sounds Air will ramp up to normality reasonably quickly, especially if Air New Zealand slowly ramps up its frequency. That would enable a healthy return to services to Blenheim and Nelson.
If Air Napier can maintain its freight service to Gisborne it will be business as usual. I doubt whether there would be any further expansion
Fly My Sky has a new owner but what an awful time for the new owner to take over... however, we were coming into winter when there was lesser demand. As stated above for Barrier Air domestic tourism is going may take off in the short term and Great Barrier Island has a lot to offer. Services to Matamata, which have never really taken off, won't be a feature until we overseas tourist traffic.
Sunair run on demand. They will build up again as they do. Their Great Barrier services will be the mainstay of their recovery. The new schedule was already reducing flights on the Gisborne and Whangarei services to Hamilton and Tauranga.
Golden Bay Air has a nice market in the Golden Bay. It is also has a certain level of domestic tourist traffic. I think it should bounce back nicely.
Stewart Island Flights carries a lot of international tourists. Services operate on demand and will build slowly initially driven by Stewart Island local traffic and domestic tourism.
Another bounce back for Originair. Don't look for flights to New Plymouth in a hurry.
Air Auckland operates largely as an air taxi and I wonder how much traffic it gets. Time will tell.
thus Article Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020 Revisited
that is all articles Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020 RevisitedThis time, hopefully can provide benefits to all of you. Okay, see you in another article posting .
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