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Title : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020
link : Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020

Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020

Happy New Year

A new year, a new decade!

3rd Level New Zealand wishes you and your whānau a fantastic year with great flying and great plane spotting opportunities.

And once again, the armchair plane nut speculates on what 2020 might bring on the domestic air service scene...

It's election year and Air New Zealand won't want to become a political football. After AIr New Zealand Paraparaumu the political outcry was intensive. I am sure they will not want to be a political football this year. In the more medium term I still think Air New Zealand wants to drop its smaller ports. So my read for 2020, no regional retrenchment this year.

Air New Zealand is currently running a trial Auckland-Invercargill Airbus 320 service. This has huge logistical issues for the airline and Invercargill airport. I understand it has been getting good support but wonder if it is sustainable for the longer term.

Meanwhile the ATR 72s seem to be full and that has meant more frequency which in turn clogs up the domestic aprons and air traffic flows at our our major domestic airports... Wellington being the prime example...  While it is unlikely, will Air New Zealand announce a discussion about a new regional jet??? It would be nice but apparently the accountants love the ATR!

They ditched their regional network last year... I think a status quo year for Jetstar.

Air Chathams retired two Convairs from the fleet last year and so the Convair replacement is becoming more urgent. The Chathams didn't get the tick for an extended runway for jet services. As the time is ticking for the Convairs I would expect another ATR or two. I still believe 737s will be added to the Air Chathams' fleet but not this year. With Saabs now being used on peak time Whakatāne services one wonders what will happen with the Metroliners. Masterton is a possibility for a new route. So my read for this year, Air Chathams will be mainly focused on ATR replacement

Barrier Air is going gangbusters with its three Cessna Grand Caravans and this is due, as I said last year, to some really dynamic leadership. Again, as I said last year, Barrier Air is an airline that is looking at initiatives and thinking carefully before it starts something new. Last year they ramped up their flight frequency to both Kaitaia and Great Barrier Island and their has been a real positive response from thee market. My read, watch this space for further development in 2020 perhaps in the form of a larger type or, if there was to be a new destination, my guess would be Whitianga.

Sounds Air is another really great operator with good leadership running a professional operation. Sounds Air added another Pilatus PC12 to its fleet late last year. The Blenheim-Napier service ends on 3 January 2020 and Sounds Air have indicated they will start a new route. Christchurch-Wanaka has been suggested in some quarters but would the PC-12 be the right machine for that for skiers and golfers? I would think Christchurch-Kapiti Coast would be a better option. They could also ramp up flights from Kapiti Coast to both Blenheim and Nelson. My read, definite development ahead in 2020.

Air Napier have been talking a lot about new routes and a new type, possibly a King Air. Napier-Hamilton, Napier-Tauranga, Napier-New Plymouth or Napier-Nelson with connections to Gisborne could be possibilities. But, it is a big step up to go turbine on lean routes. I think first they need to sort out in their own mind what they hope for the airline and start planning from there. A dedicated airline with a King Air would be a huge ask.

The Whangarei service ended, the Matamata/Hobbiton service has still to get airborne. Fly My Sky has tried valiantly but seems to have been left behind the competition. I do not see the BN Islander being a platform for moving ahead.

Sunair reintroduced their East Coast service connecting Gisborne with Hamilton, Tauranga or  Rotorua and also the Northland service connecting Whangarei with Hamilton or Tauranga. The East Coast service would seem to have the most potential. Flights from Tauranga and Whitianga to Great Barrier Island seem to be increasing in popularity. The Aztecs are starting to get a bit tired so maybe some exiting the fleet. Despite their age they are a good performer for what Sunair use them for. My read, no new developments likely.

Golden Bay Air is a niche operation and is not likely to grow unless they do a similar operation elsewhere. Kaikoura-Wellington would suit their model. My read, steady as she goes.

Stewart Island Flights fill a niche. They are experiencing solid numbers and Stewart Island is growing as a destination. With the runway at Stewart Island and the beach landings the BN Islander is a perfect fit. They probably need another BN Islander. Queenstown-Stewart Island might be a possibility for expansion but Queenstown-Stewart Island would be a long way in an Islander and as the airline operates VFR its not probably an option.

Much to my amazement Originair managed to get airborne again. Look to flights between Nelson and New Plymouth resuming. Nelson-Palmerston North morning and evening would probably work. Further expansion will require getting ZK-ECI back into their fleet. Nelson-Hamilton or Nelson-Tauranga might be possibilities but the unless the fares were reasonable they wouldn't get the passengers. So a return to where they were. My read is, don't hold your breath for New Plymouth-Napier to return.

Air Auckland seems to be more an air taxi. With the Navajo gone it is more clearly identifying itself as such. No real change is the prediction.

thus Article Crystal Ball Gazing for 2020

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